Good Evening!
The unpredictable nature of the market has always fascinated me. It seems the same thing never happens twice, yet you'll see plenty of people giving recommendations on patterns and comparing what's happening now to past events. The reality, or I guess my reality, is that it's impossible to predict the market based on past results. I've tried. I've gotten lucky. Then I failed. To me, the only way to have success is to develop a strategy, and use it with real money. Then realize your strategy sucks, and scrap it. Spend countless hours at your day job developing a new strategy, find that it works sometimes, and then adjust. And adjust... And keep adjusting. And if you're lucky, you'll find something that works for you.
Then a day like today comes along. Which either destroys or semi-validates your strategy. Luckily for me, I'm a small step closer to actually believing mine.
Okay. I've rambled too long, but I wanted to make some sort of market commentary. Maybe my post dinner beverage has me philosophical... I'm done.
Now for an actual trading update...
Still holding my position in ERX from $24.00, and I likely will be for some time. I actually placed an order to add the other 50% of my position at $23.93 if/when we get there. The strength of the energy sector made me feel a bit better about that.
You may ask, "well, why not just buy it cheaper now?". My answer is, I need to see confirmation that this downtrend is coming to an end. I've been burned in the past by getting in too early, and missing a few points at the bottom is worth it to me for the peace of mind I get when I'm confident in a position. It goes back to my strategy. See that? Tied it back to my ramblings...
So... Bottom line is, I'm feeling good about the energy sector, but need to see confirmation before going full boat long.
Just for kicks, China... Stay the hell away.
Have a great night and good luck to all tomorrow!
TraderSchmo
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