Good Evening!
Wow, what a fucking blood bath today. I'm getting absolutely killed on my ERX position. As of the close I'm down about 19%, which is pretty brutal. It just makes me more upset that it was a trade where I didn't follow my trading rules. Then again, there is a bright side. Sometimes you need to get your ass handed to you to motivate you to do better. It's not a huge position, so the money isn't a huge concern (house money from last year), but the fact is that I've been wrong. Very wrong. But we move on. And it motivates me to continue this blog to keep me on the straight and narrow.
Lets get to some ETFs that I keep my eye on. I'll discuss the charts for XLE, SPY, QQQ, and VNQ for tonight, and potentially where I believe they're heading. Honestly, there isn't a lot of good news from the charts if you want to be bullish, so my general recommendation is dont be. However, I have the feeling that it may be too late to enter bearish positions. This is just a feeling and not backed by any of my indicators. We know where feelings have gotten me so far...
We'll start with XLE as I have the 3X Bull ETF.
Forgive me, I'm still trying to learn how to throw charts on here, so it's probably hard to read. The chart above is a 15 min for XLE. What I'm seeing (and everyone else) is that we're in a significant downtrend. Tomorrow may see a bounce, likely to the $58.25 area, and if I'm lucky we'll start to form a base. I tweeted last night that I needed to see a break of 60.73 to enter the remainder of my position in ERX. We didn't get there, so the order wasnt filled. Good thing. As of now, I will continue to hold my half position because I mostly want to see where it takes me. But theres no way I'm adding until we see some sort of base form.
SPY
The chart above is a 15 minute SPY. Similar to XLE, the SPY is in freefall. Oddly enough, according to my strategy we needed a day like today to wash out the weak hands. We may see a bounce to the 200.00 area, which is actually significantly higher than where we are now with all the volatility. It could present an opportunity for some, but I will likely sit out. For that I would need to see bullish confirmation on a short time frame, and this would only be a short term swing trade. Honestly, right now to get intermediate term bullish I would need to see a break of 208. We'll likely see a lower entry point for intermediate trades. Any trades made on this will be posted.
QQQ
The chart above is a 15 minute QQQ. The Q's are actually a lot stronger than they appear in my opinion. We could see a bounce to the 110 area, which again offers an opportunity. I am expecting to see a lower high form down here probably tomorrow, and then potentially a base. This would offer an intermediate bullish opportunity. I do feel most bullish about the Q's though, so definitely something to watch.
VNQ
VNQ is a REIT fund ETF that I like to watch mostly to see correlation between how this performs and the real estate market in my area. I'm hoping that I could potentially use it to score some cheap real estate near a bottom. This is a daily chart for VNQ, which I included half for fun. I'd like to point out that from here we have two options. I guess we always do. But we could go lower, form a higher low, and start making a move upward. I probably won't be trading this, but it's interesting to look at. The alternative is that we continue lower, and confirm the downtrend again. For that we would need to see a break of 72.00. This is more likely the case, but right now it's too difficult to make a trade either way.
Have a good evening and good luck tomorrow!
TraderSchmo
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